Football Outsiders AlmanacEdit
The Football Outsiders Almanac stands as one of the most enduring annual references for NFL analysis. Produced by the team behind Football Outsiders, it blends play-by-play data, historical context, and narrative commentary to illuminate how value is created on the field. The almanac is widely read by fans, commentators, and front offices alike, serving as a benchmark for what efficient play looks like in today’s league and how rosters should be built around measurable contributions rather than reputation alone.
At its core, the almanac popularized and systematized a set of metrics that shift the emphasis from raw totals to value per play and the quality of that value relative to context. The most famous of these is DVOA, which assesses a team’s or unit’s efficiency on a per-play basis while adjusting for the strength of opposition. The book also features DYAR, a complementary yardage-based measure that seeks to quantify a player’s or unit’s overall contribution outside of baseline replacements. Together, these tools help readers understand not just how many points were scored or allowed, but how those results were earned in relation to the difficulty of the schedule and the execution of plays. The almanac builds around these core concepts to present team profiles, season previews, and historical comparisons within a framework that prizes demonstrable performance DVOA.
History and scope
Origins and development
The Football Outsiders Almanac emerged in the early 2000s as part of the broader movement to bring rigorous analytics into football discourse. Since its first edition, the almanac has been published annually by Football Outsiders, expanding its coverage to include deeper dives into offensive and defensive efficiency, situational football, and the value of players across positions. The publication has helped mainstream an analytics-first vocabulary in American football discourse, influencing not only fans but also some professional programs that look to quantitative analysis to inform personnel decisions.
What it covers
The almanac is organized to be a practical reference for a full NFL season. It includes: - DVOA-driven team rankings and unit-by-unit analyses, spanning offense, defense, and special teams. - Historical data on franchises, coaches, and players to frame contemporary performance in a longer arc. - Team-by-team pages that summarize strengths, weaknesses, and the players who drive value. - Player-focused sections emphasizing metrics such as DYAR to illustrate how individuals contribute relative to replacement-level benchmarks. - Previews and projections for the upcoming season, including rookie evaluations and probable impact players.
In presenting these materials, the almanac relies on a combination of play-by-play datasets, team records, and contextual factors like opponent strength, down-and-distance scenarios, and game situations. Readers seeking to connect the numbers to real-world outcomes often turn to the NFL season narratives and the analytic frameworks that the almanac repeatedly emphasizes DVOA.
Methodology and metrics
DVOA: value per play with context
DVOA measures efficiency on a per-play basis and adjusts for the quality of the opponents faced. It rewards plays and sequences that produce advantages relative to the typical expected value in comparable situations, and it penalizes mistakes that have outsized consequences. By focusing on marginal gain per play, DVOA seeks to separate fluky results from consistent, repeatable performance. The almanac uses DVOA as a backbone for ranking teams and units, explaining why some offenses or defenses outperform traditional yardage totals despite not always leading in raw points.
DYAR: replacement-level yardage value
DYAR complements DVOA by framing a player’s or unit’s contribution in terms of yards above a replacement-level baseline. It is designed to reflect how well a player performs relative to a widely available pool of replacement players, making it easier to compare the value of players across positions and roles. DYAR is especially useful when evaluating a player who contributes in ways that aren’t always captured by box-score stats, such as blocking schemes, route running in nuance-heavy offenses, or situational coverage responsibilities.
Other considerations and critique
Beyond the two flagship metrics, the almanac discusses a spectrum of related ideas, including the impact of schedule strength, the influence of coaching decisions on efficiency, and the effect of late-game contexts on perceived performance. While these measures have become standard in modern football analysis, they are not without critique. Critics from traditional scouting backgrounds argue that numbers must be interpreted alongside film study, intangibles, and practical on-field leadership. Proponents of analytics respond that well-constructed metrics help isolate value and reduce bias, while acknowledging that numbers are best used as guides rather than rigid verdicts.
The almanac also takes care to explain the limits of its models. It highlights how data quality, sample size, and the clustering of plays in high-leverage situations can shape estimates. This transparency matters to readers who want to understand not just what the numbers say, but how they are constructed and why certain conclusions follow from them. For ongoing debates about quarterback valuation, line play, or the returns on contract investments, the FOA presents a framework that has become a reference point for informed discussion DVOA.
Accessibility and audience
The almanac is written for a broad audience, from hardcore enthusiasts to decision-makers who want a quick read on where a team stands in terms of efficiency. It uses clear prose to translate complex statistics into practical takeaways, often supplemented by tables, historical comparisons, and season previews. Because the underlying data is tied to play-by-play events, it remains adaptable as new seasons unfold, allowing the almanac to reflect evolving trends in the league. Readers interested in broader analytical contexts can connect the FOA approach to other Statistics discussions and to similar analytic efforts in related sports, such as Pro Football Focus and other analytics outlets.
Content and offerings
Team and unit analyses
A central feature of the almanac is its detailed team-by-team sections. Each entry typically features: - An assessment of the offense, defense, and special teams using DVOA and related metrics. - Contextual commentary on scheduling, opponent quality, and notable on-field performances. - Projections for the upcoming season grounded in historical efficiency and current roster composition.
These sections aim to explain why a team succeeds (or struggles) beyond simple win-loss tallies and to identify players who drive value in ways that traditional stats may overlook. Discussions of each unit often cross-reference DYAR with the broader roster strategy.
Historical data and season previews
The almanac situates the current season within a broader historical frame. It revisits all-time leaders, franchise arcs, and turning points in the sport, offering readers a sense of how efficiency has evolved over time. The season previews combine the analytic framework with scouts’ eye-test observations, creating a hybrid view that both honors tradition and pushes for data-informed decision-making.
Rookies and player development
Rookie analyses in the FOA focus on how quickly young players contribute value in real-game contexts. By juxtaposing rookie DYAR and DVOA figures with expectations set by scouting reports, the almanac provides a gauge of how rapidly players adapt to professional football and how that adaptation translates into on-field performance.
Power rankings and fan-facing content
The almanac includes its own power ranking style, grounded in the analytic framework rather than anecdotal hype. These rankings offer a disciplined counterweight to public narratives that can be swayed by reputational factors or media-driven stories. Readers who follow Power Rankings in other publications may find that FOA’s approach emphasizes efficiency, scarcity value, and situational impact.
Controversies and debates
Analytics vs. traditional scouting
A recurring debate surrounding the almanac is the role of analytics in a sport with rich coaching lore and long-standing scouting traditions. Proponents argue that DVOA and DYAR reveal patterns that conventional stats miss, thereby guiding smarter personnel decisions and game planning. Critics contend that numbers sometimes fail to capture leadership, locker-room dynamics, and the pressure of a late-game drive. The almanac presents a measured stance in this debate, arguing that analytics should inform but not dictate decisions, and that film study and qualitative analysis remain essential complements to quantitative measures.
Context, injuries, and narrative
Another point of contention concerns the context surrounding data. While the almanac tries to account for schedule difficulty and opponent strength, some readers worry that off-field factors—such as injuries, contract disputes, or coaching changes—can skew results. The publication addresses these concerns by explicitly noting when context has a meaningful impact on interpretation and by encouraging readers to view numbers as part of a broader story rather than a stand-alone verdict.
Woke criticisms and the defense of value
From a vantage that prioritizes performance and market outcomes, some critics argue that analytics can be read as attempting to override tradition or to reduce players to numbers in a way that excludes leadership and character. Defenders of the FOA position emphasize that the metrics measure observable in-game contributions—yards, efficiency, preventable mistakes—rather than personal attributes. They argue that the purpose of DVOA and DYAR is to illuminate value, not to police identity or culture. When challenges arise, the almanac's authors typically respond by clarifying metric definitions, documenting methodology, and illustrating how statistics correlate with wins and roster-building decisions. Where critics see a threat to tradition, supporters see a disciplined framework for evaluating performance with accountability.
The politics of sports analytics
In broader discourse, analytics often intersect with debates about the role of data in public life. The FOA does not dive into wider political questions, but its emphasis on efficiency, disciplined decision-making, and measurable outcomes aligns with a market-oriented mindset that prizes accountability and the prudent deployment of resources. For readers concerned about overreach or misplaced priorities, the almanac’s insistence on empirical validation of claims offers a counterweight to sentiment-driven conclusions and media-driven hype.
Reception and impact
The almanac has contributed to a shift in how fans and some teams talk about value in the NFL. By foregrounding measures like DVOA and DYAR, it has helped create a more analytic baseline for comparing players and units across seasons. Its influence is evident in the way readers reference efficiency when discussing strengths and weaknesses, and in how front offices occasionally use the framework to inform talent acquisition, contract decisions, and development priorities. The almanac sits alongside other analytic enterprises such as Pro Football Focus in shaping the contemporary conversation about football value and performance.
Readers who prefer traditional narratives still engage with the almanac to test claims against recent outcomes, and to gain a more nuanced understanding of what went right or wrong in a given season. The work sits at an intersection of data-driven analysis and narrative football storytelling, offering a sober, evidence-based lens on a sport that thrives on big plays, big figures, and big debates.